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Новости:
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Risk
Doctor Network Briefing
May/June
2008
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Meet
the Risk Doctor
David Hillson
is
in the middle of a busy travelling period. In the last week of May
he will be in Italy, then during June David will be working in
the Czech Republic, Greece, USA and UK. July sees one more overseas trip,
this time for a well-earned family holiday!
Risk Doctor services
are
available across the globe, so please visit the Events page at www.risk-doctor.com
for
full details of public events. If there's nothing currently planned near
you, why not contact
us to arrange an event .
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Introducing
the Risk Doctor Network
This
Network is for people who wish to receive regular email updates (about
every 8 weeks) on current issues in risk management. The latest briefing
is below, and we hope you find it interesting, stimulating and useful.
Why not give
us your feedback or tell us what topics you'd like to
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Briefing
WHAT
DRIVES RISK ATTITUDE?
[
Copyright May 2008, David Hillson/Risk Doctor Limited]
It
seems obvious to say that people
are essential if risk is to be managed effectively. Risk management is
not done by robots or machines, but by people, acting individually and in
groups. One of the biggest influences over the risk process are the risk attitudes which people adopt.
These affect every aspect of the risk process, even if people are unaware
of it. Understanding and managing these risk attitudes would
significantly increase risk management effectiveness - so what are they
and what affects them?
One
simple definition of "risk" is "uncertainty
that matters", and it is only possible to define a risk
in relation to something specific, usually an objective of some kind. A
person's view of risk is also affected by their perception of such things
as the likelihood of the risk occurring or the impact if it were to
happen. Similarly "attitude" is " a
chosen response to a given situation", and it too is
related to a specific situation and affected by perception. Combining the
two definitions of "risk" and "attitude" allows us to
build a working definition of "risk attitude": "a chosen response to uncertainty that matters,
influenced by perception".
If
we want to understand risk attitudes we need to be clear about the role
of perception in shaping
them. Recent research has uncovered three major types of influence on the
perception of risk, known as the "triple strand". This is made
up of conscious factors, subconscious factors, and affective factors.
While the three parts of the triple strand overlap and interact in
complex ways, it is helpful to tease out each of the three elements so
that they can be examined and understood.
Strand
1 - Conscious factors: These
are the visible and measurable characteristics of a particular risky
situation, based on our rational assessment. We also take account of
situational factors such as whether we have done anything similar before
(familiarity), the degree to which we have control of the situation (manageability),
or how soon the situation is expected to affect us (proximity).
Strand
2 - Subconscious factors: These
include heuristics and other sources of cognitive bias. Heuristics are
mental short-cuts based on our previous experience. Some heuristics help
us to reach an appropriate position quickly, while others can be
misleading. Unfortunately because heuristics are subconscious, their
influence is often hidden, and they can be a significant source of bias.
Common heuristics include memory of significant events (availability), or
the conviction that we already know the right answer (confirmation trap).
Strand
3 - Affective factors: These
are gut-level visceral feelings and emotions which tend to rise up
automatically or instinctively in a situation and influence how we react.
Fear, excitement or attraction can lead us to adopt risk attitudes which
a more rational assessment might not consider.
The
triple strand of influences interact together to affect perception in two
important ways: how people perceive a particular risky situation, and
what they perceive as the right way to respond to it. By appreciating how
the triple strand factors drive our perception of risky situations, we
will understand better why we adopt different risk attitudes. This will
help us to manage our attitudes to risk proactively so that we make good
decisions, select appropriate responses, and improve our management of
risk.
[ To find out
more about the triple strand, risk attitudes, and how they affect our
ability to make risky decisions, get your copy of the new book
by Ruth Murray-Webster and David Hillson, " Managing
Group Risk Attitude "
or
visit www.risk-attitude.com.
More details below.]
-----------------------------------------
To
provide feedback on this Briefing Note, or for more details on how to
develop effective risk management, contact
the Risk Doctor or visit
the Risk Doctor website.
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NEW
BOOK OUT NOW!
Ruth
Murray-Webster and David Hillson are pleased to announce their new book, Managing
Group Risk Attitude , published in
May 2008 by Gower (ISBN 978-0-566-08787-5). This ground-breaking book
reports on our research into what influences groups making risky and important
decisions. We offer a unique practical framework to understand and manage
the drivers of risk attitude in these complex situations. For full
details or to order your copy, visit the Books page of our website.
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Risk
Conference Advance News: Nice & Monte Carlo
There
are many risk conferences around the world - here's one not to miss. The PMI
RiskSIG will complete their 10th anniversary
celebrations with a two-day conference in Nice
France on 4-5
November 2008. The event includes a special " Monte
Carlo Experience" evening, as well as
world-class speakers sharing best practices in risk management.
To
find out more, or to offer a paper, contact Conference@RiskSIG.com
.
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Contact us today!
To
benefit from our unique blend of leading-edge thinking with practical
application, contact
us today. Our approach to maximising opportunity
and minimising threats will ensure that you get the most from your
business and projects. And check out the Publications area of our website
www.risk-doctor.com
for papers and briefings you can download, as well as the latest
book news.
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